블룸버그의 기사를 번역함
By Christopher Swann

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said losses stemming from the U.S. mortgage crisis may approach $1 trillion, citing a "collective failure" to predict the breadth of the crisis.

 4월 8일 블룸버그 -
 IMF는 미국의 (서브프라임) 모기지 관련 사태로 인한 손실이 1조 달러에 달할 수 있다고, 위기의 정도를 표현하기 위해 "총체적인 실패"라는 말을 언급하며 말했다.


Falling U.S. house prices and rising delinquencies may lead to $565 billion in mortgage-market losses, the IMF said in its annual Global Financial Stability report, released today in Washington. Total losses, including the securities tied to commercial real estate and loans to consumers and companies, may reach $945 billion, the fund said.

 IMF가 미국 주택 가격의 하락과 채무불이행 증가로 인한 손실은 모기지 시장에서만 5650억 달러에 이른다고 워싱턴에서의 올해 Global Financial Stability  보고에서 발표했다. 상업용 부동산에 결부된 보험과 개인 및 기업에 대한 대출을 포함할 경우 총 피해액은 9450억$에 이른다고 한다.

The forecast signals the worst of the credit crunch may be yet to come, because banks and securities firms so far have posted $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses. Policy makers, concerned that lenders' deteriorating balance sheets will hobble economic growth, are pushing companies to raise capital.

 은행과 보험사는 자산 감소와 신용 대출 손실로 지금까지 2320억$를 공시했는데, 이로 미루어 볼 때, 신용 경색이라는 최악의 사태는 아직 오지 않았을지도 모르다.  정책결정자들은 채권자들의 (적자로 얼룩진) 대차 대조표가 경제 성장을 저해할 수 있다고 걱정하며, 기업들에게는 자본비율을 높일 것을 당부하고 있다.


``The current turmoil is more than simply a liquidity event, reflecting deep-seated balance-sheet fragilities and weak capital bases, which means its effects are likely to be broader, deeper and more protracted,'' the report said. The fund warned of the risk of ``a serious funding and confidence crisis that threatens to continue for a significant period.''

 현재의 혼란은 간단한 유동성 문제 이상의 것으로, 이는 고질적인 대차대조표의 약점과 보유 자본의 취약성을 반영하는 것이며, 이는 그 영향이 더 광범위하고, 더 깊으며, 더 길어질 것을 의미한다고 보고서는 말하고 있다. 기금은 상당 기간 지속될 자금 투자와 신뢰성에 대한 위기에 대하여 경고했다.

G-7 Ministers Meeting

Today's report comes days before finance ministers and central bank governors from the IMF's 185 members gather in Washington for spring meetings of the fund and World Bank. Group of Seven policy makers meet April 11.

The fund, which predicted a year ago that any ripple effects from a subprime mortgage crisis would be limited, blamed lax regulations and a lack of understanding about the risks in structured financial products for the crisis.

``Everybody has learned a lot,'' Jaime Caruana, the IMF's director of monetary and capital markets, said at a press conference in Washington, when asked how the fund underestimated the fallout. ``We have all to be a little bit humble on the analysis of the crisis, because it has been a very, very complex crisis.''

Today's IMF estimate exceeds those by other economists, including analysts at UBS AG, who projected in February that financial firms may lose $600 billion.

`Contingency Plans'

While financial innovations have brought some benefits, ``the events of the past eight months have also shown that there are costs,'' the IMF said. At the same time, the fund urged governments against a rush to increase regulation, especially changes that ``unduly stifle innovation or that could exacerbate the effects of the current credit squeeze.''

Banks should improve disclosure and take writedowns ``as soon as reasonable estimates of their size can be established,'' the fund said. It also urged stronger supervision of capital adequacy, and said policy makers should prepare for further disruptions, the IMF said.

``Authorities may wish to prepare contingency plans for dealing with large stocks of impaired assets if writedowns lead to disruptive dynamics and significant negative effects on the real economy,'' the report said.

The fund added that policy makers should ``stand ready to promptly address strains within troubled financial institutions.''

Federal Reserve officials prevented a disorderly failure of Bear Stearns Cos. last month by agreeing to lend against $30 billion of the company's assets, as part of a takeover agreement with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Elevated Risks

The fund noted in the report that while ``risks to financial stability remain elevated'' worldwide, emerging market economies ``have been broadly resilient.'' Still, the lender highlighted the risk of faster inflation should the subprime rout cause the dollar's slump to accelerate.

``Further downward pressure on the dollar, particularly if it'' comes ``from subprime or similar shocks, could boost liquidity and lead to an intensification of inflationary pressures in some emerging markets,'' the fund said.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who took office in November, has conceded that the fund wasn't as vocal as it could have been about the risks that a subprime collapse posed for the global financial system.

In April 2007, the fund said there was little risk of a ``serious systemic threat.'' It also said that ``stress-tests conducted by investment banks show that, even under scenarios of nationwide house price declines that are historically unprecedented, most investors with exposure to subprime mortgages through securitization will not face losses.''

14 Banks

At least 14 banks and securities firms have sought cash from outside investors in the past year.

Since credit markets seized up in the U.S. in August, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index is down about 7 percent, the trade-weighted dollar index has dropped more than 9 percent and the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes has fallen to 1.88 percent. Home prices tracked by S&P Case-Shiller have slumped in every month.

``There has been a collective failure to appreciate the extent of leverage in the financial system and the associated risks of disorderly unwinding,'' Caruana said today. ``Markets remain under considerable strain.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Christopher Swann in Washington at cswann1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 8, 2008 11:24 EDT
« PREV : 1 : ··· : 79 : 80 : 81 : 82 : 83 : 84 : 85 : 86 : 87 : NEXT »